Indian IT faces AI layoffs and US visa hurdles

HYDERABAD: Just a decade ago, Indian IT graduates could expect high-paying jobs before turning 25, either in the United States or in Indian hubs like Hyderabad and Bengaluru. But that scenario is changing as the IT industry faces job cuts, largely due to artificial intelligence (AI) and new visa restrictions in the US.

While AI tools such as ChatGPT have automated many tasks, companies are reducing dependence on human workers. A recent survey projected that by 2030, nearly 85 million IT jobs could disappear globally, although new employment opportunities are also expected to emerge.

At present, 9.72 lakh IT professionals work in Telangana, and about one lakh engineering graduates pass out annually in the state. Roughly half seek domestic jobs while the rest aim for overseas roles, particularly in the US.

H1B visa restrictions worry Indian aspirants

The US government has increased H1B visa fees to $1,00,000 (about ₹90 lakh) for new hires. Although the rule does not apply to existing visa holders, it has raised concerns among fresh aspirants and companies. Indian IT professionals typically earn less than ₹90 lakh annually, making it harder for US firms to justify hiring from India under the revised fee structure.

India has long dominated H1B visa allocations. In 2024, about 71% of all H1B visas issued went to Indians, while China stood second at 11.7%. However, the limited annual quota of 85,000 visas has been oversubscribed for years.

IT exports and tariffs add to uncertainty

Indian IT exports to the US touched ₹10–12 lakh crore in 2023–24, accounting for nearly 65% of the country’s IT exports. Some reports suggest the US govt may impose tariffs on IT services, adding to industry concerns.

GCCs offer relief within India

Experts say Global Capability Centres (GCCs) may provide relief to Indian IT talent. Large multinationals are increasingly routing projects through GCCs in cities like Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Chennai and Noida instead of outsourcing them abroad. These centres offer cost savings and access to skilled engineers, potentially creating new opportunities for Indians despite global headwinds.